My Yahoo!:: Internet Stock Index (ISDEX) TechWeek: Big Things From Small Packages - 10 hours ago Dell Earnings Sink Tech Stocks; Apple Hits 52-Week Highs - 11 hours http://www.albertpeia.com/myahoo81205.htmHOME | Every correction needs a trigger. Here's this one: a blurb in Business Week from an analyst who said Internet stocks were overdue for a correction sends ISDEX tumbling, down 16% to 499.67, its biggest one-day drop this year. However, I've seen these before and the blurb isn't what sent them downward. An observation doesn't make an event like this occur, underlying cycles and trends cause them. InternetNews Realtime IT News - Internet Market Close Report for 1998.10.20:: WiPro Intel® Centrino® Pro with vPro Processor Technology Stocks Plunge on Financial, Inflation Worries. Technical Analysis: Correction Time http://www.internetnews.com/bus-news/article.php/61041/Internet+Me+Report+for+19981020.htmHOME | Stocks Plunge On Inflation, Earnings Worries:: Personal Tech. BlackBerryToday. iPhoneGuide. Jumbo. Megapixel.net. Palm Prudential rated the stock a Strong Buy, but Adams Harkness downgraded it to http://news.earthweb.com/bus-news/print.php/595601HOME | That explains why NASDAQ takes a similar trajectory albeit at a smaller percent loss, off 5%. The underlying weakness is too many Internet initial public offerings finding too few buyers. More than 100 Internet stock offers have or are scheduled to ooze through the IPO pipe--too many offers, too many ".coms." Investors pushed up new offers on zeal but the caffeine and enthusiasm had to wear off, it always does. In my 5 years as an Internet investment analyst I've seen this cycle over and over and over. Stocks Plunge On Japanese Bank Concerns:: Worries about the health of Japanese banks sent stocks plunging on Wednesday. Technology and Internet stocks showed some strength, and a few leaders traded http://news.earthweb.com/bus-news/print.php/713561HOME | We don't have to go that far back to see the last oasis turn into desert. July of 1998 was a peak followed by an August of malcontent. Plenty of issues in registration in July worried that the window had closed when August slammed it shut. But as Fall progressed EarthWeb (NASDAQ:EWBX) brought a renewed liquidity to the market with one of the best first-day IPO runs of all time which set the stage for a strong Winter IPO market in general that lasted all of first quarter 1999 until last Wednesday when the top became unstable because of too many IPOs trying to make it to market quickly.
The frenzy poured into international markets with Internauts looking at the UK for the next "CMGI" in London Pacific (NASDAQ:LPGLY) or other UK stocks which seemed like bargains compared to their U.S. counterparts. While the international market may hold promise I think the core U.S. Internet equities market is saturated and needs time to be digested, dry out, shake out, separate the flotsam from the jetsam from things that float no matter what the weather or tidal conditions. My Yahoo!:: Stocks Rise on Strong Dollar - one hour ago. BT, Navini, to test wireless technology in U.K. Internet Stock Index (ISDEX) http://www.albertpeia.com/myahoo10305.htmHOME | InternetNews Realtime IT News - NBC Internet Warning Sends Net Shares Lower:: Comcast Fires Back With Tech a Big Player at GOP Hundreds of Sites Blocked in Stocks Plunge on Job Losses. Technical Analysis: Momentum Turns Down http://www.internetnews.com/bus-news/article.php/393591HOME |
To me the selloff and panic once again provides an opportunity for those who want to own the leaders in each area, the pioneering marketshare firms a chance to buy at what could be more reasonable prices.
I think we could see more a correction for the next few weeks, with 10% to 15% drops from these levels for a wide swath of Internet stocks as we move into May. Once again, for the leaders getting caught up in the down draft it may provide an opportunity for those buyers to buy at 35% to 50% of where a majority of these stocks were just last week. That isn't to suggest that the tops we saw were sustainable, it's my belief that the tops were indications of things to come for these companies, expected growth. For now I think focusing on the category leaders makes the most sense, those in a position to ride out the storm with their cash positions strong. I would particularly focus on the handful of firms that just pulled off secondaries as well as brand-known category definers. That's the beauty of a correction, it instantly draws out the difference between risk and reward, speculation plays from established players. Viewed correctly I think a correction is a blessing in disguise.
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